Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 11?
37°C 49%
38°C 34%
36°C 17%
40°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
3%
36°C
17%
37°C
49%
38°C
34%
39°C
4%
40°C
6%
41°C
5%
42°C or higher
1%
37°C 49%
38°C 34%
36°C 17%
40°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
32°C or below
$32 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$32 Обс.
<1%
34°C
$37 Обс.
1%
35°C
$87 Обс.
3%
36°C
$44 Обс.
17%
37°C
$71 Обс.
49%
38°C
$113 Обс.
34%
39°C
$32 Обс.
4%
40°C
$27 Обс.
6%
41°C
$5 Обс.
5%
42°C or higher
$37 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$517Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$517Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including AEMET and ECMWF position maximum temperatures in Madrid near 37–38 °C on August 11 under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and warm advection from North Africa. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with climatological August peaks but elevated relative to the 33 °C seasonal average. Recent model runs show tight clustering around these values with low spread, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 37 °C (48.5 %) and 38 °C (30 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves demonstrated similar synoptic setups, yet the near-term outlook lacks signals for further intensification or cooling before the date. Updated guidance expected from AEMET and ECMWF over the next 48 hours could refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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