Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee Patty Garcia at 93.1% implied probability in the IL-04 House race, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic dominance with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and historical general election margins exceeding 40 points for Democrats. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement announcement in November 2025 created an open seat, but Garcia secured the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary unopposed and holds a fundraising edge with over $162,000 cash on hand. Republican Lupe Castillo, who garnered just 27% in 2024, advances unopposed but faces long odds, alongside minor independents. No major developments since the primaries have shifted sentiment; a GOP national wave, scandal targeting Garcia, or unusual independent consolidation could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$29,677 Обс.
$29,677 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
4%
$29,677 Обс.
$29,677 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,932 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$10,745 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee Patty Garcia at 93.1% implied probability in the IL-04 House race, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic dominance with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and historical general election margins exceeding 40 points for Democrats. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement announcement in November 2025 created an open seat, but Garcia secured the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary unopposed and holds a fundraising edge with over $162,000 cash on hand. Republican Lupe Castillo, who garnered just 27% in 2024, advances unopposed but faces long odds, alongside minor independents. No major developments since the primaries have shifted sentiment; a GOP national wave, scandal targeting Garcia, or unusual independent consolidation could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$29,677Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee Patty Garcia at 93.1% implied probability in the IL-04 House race, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic dominance with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and historical general election margins exceeding 40 points for Democrats. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement announcement in November 2025 created an open seat, but Garcia secured the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary unopposed and holds a fundraising edge with over $162,000 cash on hand. Republican Lupe Castillo, who garnered just 27% in 2024, advances unopposed but faces long odds, alongside minor independents. No major developments since the primaries have shifted sentiment; a GOP national wave, scandal targeting Garcia, or unusual independent consolidation could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$29,677Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee Patty Garcia at 93.1% implied probability in the IL-04 House race, reflecting the district's entrenched Democratic dominance with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+17 and historical general election margins exceeding 40 points for Democrats. Incumbent Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement announcement in November 2025 created an open seat, but Garcia secured the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary unopposed and holds a fundraising edge with over $162,000 cash on hand. Republican Lupe Castillo, who garnered just 27% in 2024, advances unopposed but faces long odds, alongside minor independents. No major developments since the primaries have shifted sentiment; a GOP national wave, scandal targeting Garcia, or unusual independent consolidation could challenge this, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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