Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$52,331 Обс.
$52,331 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$52,331 Обс.
$52,331 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$37,684 Обс.
95%
Republican Party
$14,647 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$52,331Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$52,331Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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