Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat’s R+11 partisan voting index and his established incumbency in a rural northern Illinois district. LaHood secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition in March 2026 after winning reelection unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. Forecasters consistently rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting LaHood’s fundraising edge and the absence of major local shifts. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event, or exceptionally high turnout that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan lean.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$38,689 Обс.
$38,689 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
7%
$38,689 Обс.
$38,689 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
$15,407 Обс.
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
$23,282 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat’s R+11 partisan voting index and his established incumbency in a rural northern Illinois district. LaHood secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition in March 2026 after winning reelection unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. Forecasters consistently rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting LaHood’s fundraising edge and the absence of major local shifts. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event, or exceptionally high turnout that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$38,689Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat’s R+11 partisan voting index and his established incumbency in a rural northern Illinois district. LaHood secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition in March 2026 after winning reelection unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. Forecasters consistently rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting LaHood’s fundraising edge and the absence of major local shifts. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event, or exceptionally high turnout that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$38,689Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to the seat’s R+11 partisan voting index and his established incumbency in a rural northern Illinois district. LaHood secured the Republican nomination without primary opposition in March 2026 after winning reelection unopposed in 2024, while Democrat Paul Nolley advanced as the sole Democratic nominee. Forecasters consistently rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting LaHood’s fundraising edge and the absence of major local shifts. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. A Democratic victory would likely require an unusually strong national midterm environment, late-cycle developments such as a significant scandal or health event, or exceptionally high turnout that overcomes the district’s baseline partisan lean.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання