**A cold front advancing from Patagonia is the dominant driver of market-implied odds for Buenos Aires minimum temperatures on September 3.** Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple global models (including Met Office, Yr, and ensemble runs) show the front crossing the region overnight September 2–3, accompanied by showers or thunderstorms early on the 3rd before gradual clearing and a wind shift to the southwest. This advection of cooler, drier air behind the front, combined with reduced cloud cover and potential radiative cooling overnight, positions the overnight/early-morning low in the 9–12 °C range as the most probable outcome. Model consensus centers near 9–10 °C, consistent with the leading 45 % probability on 9 °C or below and elevated odds around the 10–11 °C bins. Warmer scenarios (19 °C or higher at 34.5 %) would require the front to stall or weaken, keeping maritime air in place longer; such outcomes carry lower weight because recent model runs have converged on a timely frontal passage. Historical September climatology for the city (typical minima near 9 °C) provides additional context but is secondary to the current synoptic setup. The next SMN update and refined model runs on September 3 morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 3?
19°C or higher 74%
14°C 49%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
9°C or below
49%
10°C
28%
11°C
29%
12°C
27%
13°C
25%
14°C
49%
15°C
2%
16°C
49%
17°C
49%
18°C
13%
19°C or higher
74%
19°C or higher 74%
14°C 49%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 3, 2026
9°C or below
$6 Обс.
49%
10°C
$0 Обс.
28%
11°C
$0 Обс.
29%
12°C
$0 Обс.
27%
13°C
$0 Обс.
25%
14°C
$20 Обс.
49%
15°C
$7 Обс.
2%
16°C
$10 Обс.
49%
17°C
$10 Обс.
49%
18°C
$10 Обс.
13%
19°C or higher
$10 Обс.
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A cold front advancing from Patagonia is the dominant driver of market-implied odds for Buenos Aires minimum temperatures on September 3.** Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple global models (including Met Office, Yr, and ensemble runs) show the front crossing the region overnight September 2–3, accompanied by showers or thunderstorms early on the 3rd before gradual clearing and a wind shift to the southwest.
This advection of cooler, drier air behind the front, combined with reduced cloud cover and potential radiative cooling overnight, positions the overnight/early-morning low in the 9–12 °C range as the most probable outcome. Model consensus centers near 9–10 °C, consistent with the leading 45 % probability on 9 °C or below and elevated odds around the 10–11 °C bins.
Warmer scenarios (19 °C or higher at 34.5 %) would require the front to stall or weaken, keeping maritime air in place longer; such outcomes carry lower weight because recent model runs have converged on a timely frontal passage. Historical September climatology for the city (typical minima near 9 °C) provides additional context but is secondary to the current synoptic setup. The next SMN update and refined model runs on September 3 morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$73Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A cold front advancing from Patagonia is the dominant driver of market-implied odds for Buenos Aires minimum temperatures on September 3.** Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple global models (including Met Office, Yr, and ensemble runs) show the front crossing the region overnight September 2–3, accompanied by showers or thunderstorms early on the 3rd before gradual clearing and a wind shift to the southwest.
This advection of cooler, drier air behind the front, combined with reduced cloud cover and potential radiative cooling overnight, positions the overnight/early-morning low in the 9–12 °C range as the most probable outcome. Model consensus centers near 9–10 °C, consistent with the leading 45 % probability on 9 °C or below and elevated odds around the 10–11 °C bins.
Warmer scenarios (19 °C or higher at 34.5 %) would require the front to stall or weaken, keeping maritime air in place longer; such outcomes carry lower weight because recent model runs have converged on a timely frontal passage. Historical September climatology for the city (typical minima near 9 °C) provides additional context but is secondary to the current synoptic setup. The next SMN update and refined model runs on September 3 morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$73Дата завершення
Sep 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 1, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**A cold front advancing from Patagonia is the dominant driver of market-implied odds for Buenos Aires minimum temperatures on September 3.** Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance and multiple global models (including Met Office, Yr, and ensemble runs) show the front crossing the region overnight September 2–3, accompanied by showers or thunderstorms early on the 3rd before gradual clearing and a wind shift to the southwest. This advection of cooler, drier air behind the front, combined with reduced cloud cover and potential radiative cooling overnight, positions the overnight/early-morning low in the 9–12 °C range as the most probable outcome. Model consensus centers near 9–10 °C, consistent with the leading 45 % probability on 9 °C or below and elevated odds around the 10–11 °C bins. Warmer scenarios (19 °C or higher at 34.5 %) would require the front to stall or weaken, keeping maritime air in place longer; such outcomes carry lower weight because recent model runs have converged on a timely frontal passage. Historical September climatology for the city (typical minima near 9 °C) provides additional context but is secondary to the current synoptic setup. The next SMN update and refined model runs on September 3 morning will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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