**Current forecast models point to overnight lows in Chongqing near 24–27°C on August 25, aligning with the balanced market odds clustered around those specific temperature outcomes.** Chongqing’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity and limited nighttime radiative cooling in late summer, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared with drier regions. Recent model runs show partly cloudy to thundery conditions that could modestly enhance cooling through increased cloud cover or brief showers, while any clearer intervals or stronger urban heat retention would push the low higher. Climatological August averages place typical lows at 24–26°C, providing a baseline that traders weigh against the latest guidance. The near-even split between the 21°C-or-below and 31°C-or-higher brackets reflects genuine uncertainty in how much the city’s topography, humidity, and any last-minute precipitation will shift the final recorded minimum, with new model updates and official observations expected to sharpen resolution as the date approaches.