**Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and international sources converge on a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 23, 2026, driving the 51% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Late-winter conditions feature a transition from recent cold southwesterly outbreaks to milder northwesterly flow, which is expected to clear showers by morning and allow temperatures to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms (typical August highs near 12–13°C). Official guidance highlights brisk nor’west winds easing through the day, supporting the 15°C call while leaving room for minor model adjustments that keep 14°C (23%) and 16°C (22.5%) as viable near-alternatives. No significant forecast shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this consensus, and traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that place the peak squarely in the 14–16°C range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 23?
15°C 52%
14°C 28%
16°C 22%
13°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
22%
15°C
52%
16°C
22%
17°C
3%
18°C
3%
19°C or higher
1%
15°C 52%
14°C 28%
16°C 22%
13°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
9°C or below
$107 Обс.
1%
10°C
$95 Обс.
1%
11°C
$95 Обс.
1%
12°C
$95 Обс.
1%
13°C
$0 Обс.
4%
14°C
$17 Обс.
22%
15°C
$29 Обс.
52%
16°C
$56 Обс.
22%
17°C
$0 Обс.
3%
18°C
$20 Обс.
3%
19°C or higher
$95 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and international sources converge on a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 23, 2026, driving the 51% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Late-winter conditions feature a transition from recent cold southwesterly outbreaks to milder northwesterly flow, which is expected to clear showers by morning and allow temperatures to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms (typical August highs near 12–13°C). Official guidance highlights brisk nor’west winds easing through the day, supporting the 15°C call while leaving room for minor model adjustments that keep 14°C (23%) and 16°C (22.5%) as viable near-alternatives. No significant forecast shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this consensus, and traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that place the peak squarely in the 14–16°C range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$609Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and international sources converge on a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 23, 2026, driving the 51% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Late-winter conditions feature a transition from recent cold southwesterly outbreaks to milder northwesterly flow, which is expected to clear showers by morning and allow temperatures to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms (typical August highs near 12–13°C). Official guidance highlights brisk nor’west winds easing through the day, supporting the 15°C call while leaving room for minor model adjustments that keep 14°C (23%) and 16°C (22.5%) as viable near-alternatives. No significant forecast shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this consensus, and traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that place the peak squarely in the 14–16°C range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$609Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from MetService, NIWA, and international sources converge on a daytime maximum of 15°C for Wellington on August 23, 2026, driving the 51% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Late-winter conditions feature a transition from recent cold southwesterly outbreaks to milder northwesterly flow, which is expected to clear showers by morning and allow temperatures to reach or slightly exceed seasonal norms (typical August highs near 12–13°C). Official guidance highlights brisk nor’west winds easing through the day, supporting the 15°C call while leaving room for minor model adjustments that keep 14°C (23%) and 16°C (22.5%) as viable near-alternatives. No significant forecast shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this consensus, and traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs that place the peak squarely in the 14–16°C range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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