Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs point to overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies across southern England, positioning London’s minimum temperature for August 6 near 14–15 °C as the consensus outcome. Following an early-August warm spell that produced daytime highs near 29 °C, a northwesterly flow has introduced fresher air and reduced cloud cover, accelerating heat loss after sunset while keeping dew points supportive of minima in the mid-teens. Historical August climatology shows typical London lows around 13–14 °C, so current forecasts sit slightly above average yet remain consistent with the observed cooling trend. Traders are weighting these dynamical signals heavily, with implied probabilities concentrated on 14–15 °C reflecting limited upside for further nocturnal drops absent stronger high-pressure development or unexpected clear-sky persistence. Updated short-range model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins scheduled for the evening of August 5 will provide the next key data points for position adjustment.