**Trader consensus centers on a 16–18°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 4 because ensemble forecasts show modest spread around overnight radiative cooling under a mix of cloud and moderate southwesterly flow.** Current model guidance, including GFS and regional runs, indicates highs near 20–23°C with the daily low most likely occurring in the early morning or post-frontal clearing later in the period. Key differentiating factors include the timing and thickness of cloud cover—which modulates longwave heat loss—and wind speeds that limit boundary-layer decoupling. Recent Met Office outlooks note a shift to fresher conditions with light rain possible, supporting the tight clustering around 17°C (42.5%) and 18°C (38.5%). Updated high-resolution model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins expected later on September 3 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in London on September 4?
Lowest temperature in London on September 4?
17°C 43%
18°C 39%
16°C 21%
19°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
21%
17°C
43%
18°C
39%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 43%
18°C 39%
16°C 21%
19°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$79 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$102 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$20 Обс.
1%
15°C
$105 Обс.
3%
16°C
$376 Обс.
21%
17°C
$513 Обс.
43%
18°C
$1,072 Обс.
39%
19°C
$470 Обс.
4%
20°C
$725 Обс.
1%
21°C
$157 Обс.
<1%
22°C or higher
$71 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 16–18°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 4 because ensemble forecasts show modest spread around overnight radiative cooling under a mix of cloud and moderate southwesterly flow.** Current model guidance, including GFS and regional runs, indicates highs near 20–23°C with the daily low most likely occurring in the early morning or post-frontal clearing later in the period. Key differentiating factors include the timing and thickness of cloud cover—which modulates longwave heat loss—and wind speeds that limit boundary-layer decoupling. Recent Met Office outlooks note a shift to fresher conditions with light rain possible, supporting the tight clustering around 17°C (42.5%) and 18°C (38.5%). Updated high-resolution model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins expected later on September 3 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,688Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 16–18°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 4 because ensemble forecasts show modest spread around overnight radiative cooling under a mix of cloud and moderate southwesterly flow.** Current model guidance, including GFS and regional runs, indicates highs near 20–23°C with the daily low most likely occurring in the early morning or post-frontal clearing later in the period. Key differentiating factors include the timing and thickness of cloud cover—which modulates longwave heat loss—and wind speeds that limit boundary-layer decoupling. Recent Met Office outlooks note a shift to fresher conditions with light rain possible, supporting the tight clustering around 17°C (42.5%) and 18°C (38.5%). Updated high-resolution model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins expected later on September 3 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,688Дата завершення
Sep 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a 16–18°C range for London’s minimum temperature on September 4 because ensemble forecasts show modest spread around overnight radiative cooling under a mix of cloud and moderate southwesterly flow.** Current model guidance, including GFS and regional runs, indicates highs near 20–23°C with the daily low most likely occurring in the early morning or post-frontal clearing later in the period. Key differentiating factors include the timing and thickness of cloud cover—which modulates longwave heat loss—and wind speeds that limit boundary-layer decoupling. Recent Met Office outlooks note a shift to fresher conditions with light rain possible, supporting the tight clustering around 17°C (42.5%) and 18°C (38.5%). Updated high-resolution model runs and official minimum-temperature bulletins expected later on September 3 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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