Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and official guidance indicate a cool overnight period for Madrid on September 10, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds promoting radiative cooling after a notable temperature drop on the 9th driven by northerly flow and weak precipitation. This setup positions the overnight low near 12°C, supporting the 60% market-implied probability for 11°C or below while limiting upside risk for warmer outcomes. Historical September lows average around 16°C, but the current cooler air mass and reduced cloud cover increase the chance of dipping to or below typical early-autumn thresholds. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 10?
12°C 24%
17°C 11%
13°C 11%
20°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 10, 2026
11°C or below
55%
12°C
24%
13°C
11%
14°C
9%
15°C
9%
16°C
5%
17°C
11%
18°C
7%
19°C
7%
20°C
10%
21°C or higher
-
12°C 24%
17°C 11%
13°C 11%
20°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 10, 2026
11°C or below
$21 Обс.
55%
12°C
$0 Обс.
24%
13°C
$0 Обс.
11%
14°C
$0 Обс.
9%
15°C
$0 Обс.
9%
16°C
$25 Обс.
5%
17°C
$6 Обс.
11%
18°C
$25 Обс.
7%
19°C
$25 Обс.
7%
20°C
$6 Обс.
10%
21°C or higher
$35 Обс.
-
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and official guidance indicate a cool overnight period for Madrid on September 10, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds promoting radiative cooling after a notable temperature drop on the 9th driven by northerly flow and weak precipitation. This setup positions the overnight low near 12°C, supporting the 60% market-implied probability for 11°C or below while limiting upside risk for warmer outcomes. Historical September lows average around 16°C, but the current cooler air mass and reduced cloud cover increase the chance of dipping to or below typical early-autumn thresholds. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$143Дата завершення
Sep 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and official guidance indicate a cool overnight period for Madrid on September 10, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds promoting radiative cooling after a notable temperature drop on the 9th driven by northerly flow and weak precipitation. This setup positions the overnight low near 12°C, supporting the 60% market-implied probability for 11°C or below while limiting upside risk for warmer outcomes. Historical September lows average around 16°C, but the current cooler air mass and reduced cloud cover increase the chance of dipping to or below typical early-autumn thresholds. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$143Дата завершення
Sep 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and official guidance indicate a cool overnight period for Madrid on September 10, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds promoting radiative cooling after a notable temperature drop on the 9th driven by northerly flow and weak precipitation. This setup positions the overnight low near 12°C, supporting the 60% market-implied probability for 11°C or below while limiting upside risk for warmer outcomes. Historical September lows average around 16°C, but the current cooler air mass and reduced cloud cover increase the chance of dipping to or below typical early-autumn thresholds. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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