Recent European forecast models, including runs from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF, indicate Munich nighttime lows on August 23 near 9–12 °C under clear to partly cloudy conditions following a brief cool spell. This places the daily minimum well above the 5 °C threshold currently favored at 40.5 % market-implied probability, reflecting typical late-August climatology where radiative cooling under light winds yields minima rarely below 10 °C. Trader positioning on colder bins may embed lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or localized urban heat-island effects, yet official guidance shows no incoming arctic air mass or significant cloud cover to suppress temperatures further. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Munich on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 23?
5°C or below 42%
9°C 28%
7°C 22%
8°C 20%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
42%
6°C
19%
7°C
22%
8°C
20%
9°C
17%
10°C
13%
11°C
10%
12°C
9%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C or higher
1%
5°C or below 42%
9°C 28%
7°C 22%
8°C 20%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 23, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Обс.
42%
6°C
$0 Обс.
19%
7°C
$0 Обс.
22%
8°C
$1 Обс.
20%
9°C
$32 Обс.
17%
10°C
$0 Обс.
13%
11°C
$0 Обс.
10%
12°C
$0 Обс.
9%
13°C
$22 Обс.
1%
14°C
$26 Обс.
1%
15°C or higher
$17 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European forecast models, including runs from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF, indicate Munich nighttime lows on August 23 near 9–12 °C under clear to partly cloudy conditions following a brief cool spell. This places the daily minimum well above the 5 °C threshold currently favored at 40.5 % market-implied probability, reflecting typical late-August climatology where radiative cooling under light winds yields minima rarely below 10 °C. Trader positioning on colder bins may embed lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or localized urban heat-island effects, yet official guidance shows no incoming arctic air mass or significant cloud cover to suppress temperatures further. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$98Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European forecast models, including runs from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF, indicate Munich nighttime lows on August 23 near 9–12 °C under clear to partly cloudy conditions following a brief cool spell. This places the daily minimum well above the 5 °C threshold currently favored at 40.5 % market-implied probability, reflecting typical late-August climatology where radiative cooling under light winds yields minima rarely below 10 °C. Trader positioning on colder bins may embed lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or localized urban heat-island effects, yet official guidance shows no incoming arctic air mass or significant cloud cover to suppress temperatures further. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$98Дата завершення
Aug 23, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European forecast models, including runs from the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF, indicate Munich nighttime lows on August 23 near 9–12 °C under clear to partly cloudy conditions following a brief cool spell. This places the daily minimum well above the 5 °C threshold currently favored at 40.5 % market-implied probability, reflecting typical late-August climatology where radiative cooling under light winds yields minima rarely below 10 °C. Trader positioning on colder bins may embed lingering uncertainty from earlier model spreads or localized urban heat-island effects, yet official guidance shows no incoming arctic air mass or significant cloud cover to suppress temperatures further. Updated model outputs expected within the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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