Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Seoul on April 26?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on April 26?
8°C or below 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$82,179 Обс.
$82,179 Обс.
Apr 26, 2026
8°C or below
Yes
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
8°C or below 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$82,179 Обс.
$82,179 Обс.
Apr 26, 2026
8°C or below
$34,202 Обс.
Yes
9°C
$33,064 Обс.
No
10°C
$3,106 Обс.
No
11°C
$1,097 Обс.
No
12°C
$708 Обс.
No
13°C
$1,401 Обс.
No
14°C
$944 Обс.
No
15°C
$2,466 Обс.
No
16°C
$1,163 Обс.
No
17°C
$2,045 Обс.
No
18°C or higher
$1,984 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$82,179Дата завершення
Apr 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: Yes
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$82,179Дата завершення
Apr 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: Yes
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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