The 2026 Quebec general election, called for October 5, has created a close contest in the Montreal riding of Rosemont following the departure of longtime independent MNA Vincent Marissal. Projections from 338Canada and Qc125 treat the seat as a toss-up between Québec solidaire candidate Gisèle Pouhe Njall and Parti québécois nominee Pierre-Luc Brillant, each with roughly 40-50% implied win probability on Polymarket. Historical QS strength in the riding, combined with a split progressive and sovereigntist vote, underpins the tight trader pricing, while Liberal David Lavoie, CAQ's Nour Aliyah Attié, and Conservative Mildred Mathieu trail with lower support. Local priorities such as Maisonneuve-Rosemont hospital reconstruction and housing have featured in candidate announcements, but no major shifts have yet separated the frontrunners. Further campaign developments, including nomination deadlines on September 17 and voter turnout patterns, could alter probabilities before election day.