Morena and its allies hold a structural edge in Sonora voter identification and recent polls, positioning their eventual nominee as the frontrunner for the 2027 gubernatorial race. The internal contest between Lorenia Valles Sampedro and Javier Lamarque Cano remains closely matched, with surveys from June through September showing either candidate leading by narrow margins depending on the pollster. Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas of Movimiento Ciudadano and Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez, drawing support from PAN-aligned circles, represent the clearest opposition paths. Potential PAN-PRI alliances, candidate registration deadlines, and further internal Morena surveys could widen or narrow gaps among the listed contenders before the nomination phase concludes.