Despite intensified Democratic calls this week for a 25th Amendment commission involving Vice President Vance—sparked by President Trump's provocative social media post on Iran threats around April 6—no Republican lawmakers or Cabinet members have endorsed invocation, underscoring the measure's steep procedural barriers requiring VP and majority Cabinet certification of incapacity, followed by potential two-thirds congressional votes to sustain. Traders price "No" at 92.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the absence of health crises, disloyalty among Trump appointees, or bipartisan support amid partisan rhetoric. Late-breaking medical emergencies or scandals could shift odds, but none have materialized in recent weeks.