President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing in response to reported activities by Russia and China has shaped trader assessments of timelines for any U.S. explosive test. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness estimates for underground explosive testing ranging from 24 to 36 months after a formal decision. New START's expiration in February 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint, while Congress retains authority over related appropriations and has seen proposals to restrict funding. Subcritical experiments and unarmed ICBM launches, such as the March 2026 Minuteman III test, continue under stockpile stewardship programs without crossing into yield-producing tests. Diplomatic signals, agency budget requests, and any shifts in international test activity remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$768,643 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
7%
$768,643 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,102 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$50,729 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing in response to reported activities by Russia and China has shaped trader assessments of timelines for any U.S. explosive test. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness estimates for underground explosive testing ranging from 24 to 36 months after a formal decision. New START's expiration in February 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint, while Congress retains authority over related appropriations and has seen proposals to restrict funding. Subcritical experiments and unarmed ICBM launches, such as the March 2026 Minuteman III test, continue under stockpile stewardship programs without crossing into yield-producing tests. Diplomatic signals, agency budget requests, and any shifts in international test activity remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$768,643Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing in response to reported activities by Russia and China has shaped trader assessments of timelines for any U.S. explosive test. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness estimates for underground explosive testing ranging from 24 to 36 months after a formal decision. New START's expiration in February 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint, while Congress retains authority over related appropriations and has seen proposals to restrict funding. Subcritical experiments and unarmed ICBM launches, such as the March 2026 Minuteman III test, continue under stockpile stewardship programs without crossing into yield-producing tests. Diplomatic signals, agency budget requests, and any shifts in international test activity remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$768,643Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing in response to reported activities by Russia and China has shaped trader assessments of timelines for any U.S. explosive test. The United States has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, with National Nuclear Security Administration readiness estimates for underground explosive testing ranging from 24 to 36 months after a formal decision. New START's expiration in February 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint, while Congress retains authority over related appropriations and has seen proposals to restrict funding. Subcritical experiments and unarmed ICBM launches, such as the March 2026 Minuteman III test, continue under stockpile stewardship programs without crossing into yield-producing tests. Diplomatic signals, agency budget requests, and any shifts in international test activity remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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