The U.S. nuclear test moratorium in place since 1992 remains the central constraint, reinforced by annual stockpile stewardship assessments confirming no technical need for explosive tests. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism that any yield-producing detonation will occur by late 2026, with implied probabilities for September or December resolutions at just 1% and 7%. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities by those states—generated initial attention, yet subsequent administration and NNSA statements have emphasized subcritical experiments, simulation work, and readiness planning rather than immediate explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Congressional oversight, funding decisions for the National Nuclear Security Administration, and the absence of new presidential authorizations continue to limit near-term prospects, while broader geopolitical competition keeps the option under discussion without accelerating timelines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$767,583 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
7%
$767,583 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,045 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$49,728 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. nuclear test moratorium in place since 1992 remains the central constraint, reinforced by annual stockpile stewardship assessments confirming no technical need for explosive tests. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism that any yield-producing detonation will occur by late 2026, with implied probabilities for September or December resolutions at just 1% and 7%. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities by those states—generated initial attention, yet subsequent administration and NNSA statements have emphasized subcritical experiments, simulation work, and readiness planning rather than immediate explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Congressional oversight, funding decisions for the National Nuclear Security Administration, and the absence of new presidential authorizations continue to limit near-term prospects, while broader geopolitical competition keeps the option under discussion without accelerating timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$767,583Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. nuclear test moratorium in place since 1992 remains the central constraint, reinforced by annual stockpile stewardship assessments confirming no technical need for explosive tests. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism that any yield-producing detonation will occur by late 2026, with implied probabilities for September or December resolutions at just 1% and 7%. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities by those states—generated initial attention, yet subsequent administration and NNSA statements have emphasized subcritical experiments, simulation work, and readiness planning rather than immediate explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Congressional oversight, funding decisions for the National Nuclear Security Administration, and the absence of new presidential authorizations continue to limit near-term prospects, while broader geopolitical competition keeps the option under discussion without accelerating timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$767,583Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. nuclear test moratorium in place since 1992 remains the central constraint, reinforced by annual stockpile stewardship assessments confirming no technical need for explosive tests. Trader sentiment reflects skepticism that any yield-producing detonation will occur by late 2026, with implied probabilities for September or December resolutions at just 1% and 7%. President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield activities by those states—generated initial attention, yet subsequent administration and NNSA statements have emphasized subcritical experiments, simulation work, and readiness planning rather than immediate explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Congressional oversight, funding decisions for the National Nuclear Security Administration, and the absence of new presidential authorizations continue to limit near-term prospects, while broader geopolitical competition keeps the option under discussion without accelerating timelines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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