Tight cattle supplies, with the U.S. herd at an 86.2 million head 75-year low entering 2026 after eight years of contraction, remain the dominant driver of elevated ground beef prices. Retail averages reached $6.70–$6.90 per pound in early 2026 following a December 2025 peak near $6.69, supported by USDA projections for a further 6.9% wholesale increase this year amid declining beef production. Strong consumer demand, limited feeder cattle availability, closed Mexican imports due to screwworm concerns, and robust lean-trim imports have sustained upward pressure, with herd rebuilding unlikely before late 2027. Traders monitoring cattle inventory reports, slaughter rates, and import volumes will watch for any acceleration in supply relief or shifts in protein substitution that could influence price paths through year-end.