Recent June 2026 CPI data, showing a sharp -0.4% month-over-month headline decline—the largest since April 2020—driven primarily by a 5.7% drop in energy prices amid the US-Iran ceasefire and lower gasoline costs, has shaped expectations for July. This pullback, which eased the year-over-year rate to 3.5% and core inflation to 2.6%, positions a modest rebound or flat reading as the consensus outcome, with market-implied odds heavily favoring ≥0.1% or 0.0% monthly change. Traders are pricing in normalization of energy components alongside steady shelter and food trends, while monitoring labor market slack and any early tariff pass-through effects. The July CPI release, due mid-August, alongside upcoming Fed communications on the policy rate path, remains the key near-term catalyst for shifts in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено≥0.1% 65%
0.0% 32%
-0.1% 4.2%
≤-0.7% 1.0%
$116,476 Обс.
$116,476 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
≤-0.7%
1%
-0.6%
<1%
-0.5%
<1%
-0.4%
<1%
-0.3%
<1%
-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
4%
0.0%
32%
≥0.1%
65%
≥0.1% 65%
0.0% 32%
-0.1% 4.2%
≤-0.7% 1.0%
$116,476 Обс.
$116,476 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
≤-0.7%
$7,271 Обс.
1%
-0.6%
$4,307 Обс.
<1%
-0.5%
$4,025 Обс.
<1%
-0.4%
$3,939 Обс.
<1%
-0.3%
$4,193 Обс.
<1%
-0.2%
$4,263 Обс.
<1%
-0.1%
$8,818 Обс.
4%
0.0%
$24,914 Обс.
32%
≥0.1%
$54,748 Обс.
65%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June 2026 CPI data, showing a sharp -0.4% month-over-month headline decline—the largest since April 2020—driven primarily by a 5.7% drop in energy prices amid the US-Iran ceasefire and lower gasoline costs, has shaped expectations for July. This pullback, which eased the year-over-year rate to 3.5% and core inflation to 2.6%, positions a modest rebound or flat reading as the consensus outcome, with market-implied odds heavily favoring ≥0.1% or 0.0% monthly change. Traders are pricing in normalization of energy components alongside steady shelter and food trends, while monitoring labor market slack and any early tariff pass-through effects. The July CPI release, due mid-August, alongside upcoming Fed communications on the policy rate path, remains the key near-term catalyst for shifts in these probabilities.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$116,476Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent June 2026 CPI data, showing a sharp -0.4% month-over-month headline decline—the largest since April 2020—driven primarily by a 5.7% drop in energy prices amid the US-Iran ceasefire and lower gasoline costs, has shaped expectations for July. This pullback, which eased the year-over-year rate to 3.5% and core inflation to 2.6%, positions a modest rebound or flat reading as the consensus outcome, with market-implied odds heavily favoring ≥0.1% or 0.0% monthly change. Traders are pricing in normalization of energy components alongside steady shelter and food trends, while monitoring labor market slack and any early tariff pass-through effects. The July CPI release, due mid-August, alongside upcoming Fed communications on the policy rate path, remains the key near-term catalyst for shifts in these probabilities.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Обсяг
$116,476Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 CPI data, showing a sharp -0.4% month-over-month headline decline—the largest since April 2020—driven primarily by a 5.7% drop in energy prices amid the US-Iran ceasefire and lower gasoline costs, has shaped expectations for July. This pullback, which eased the year-over-year rate to 3.5% and core inflation to 2.6%, positions a modest rebound or flat reading as the consensus outcome, with market-implied odds heavily favoring ≥0.1% or 0.0% monthly change. Traders are pricing in normalization of energy components alongside steady shelter and food trends, while monitoring labor market slack and any early tariff pass-through effects. The July CPI release, due mid-August, alongside upcoming Fed communications on the policy rate path, remains the key near-term catalyst for shifts in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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