Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton remains committed to his U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on May 26, driving trader consensus toward a 90.2% implied probability he will not drop out. The March 17 ballot withdrawal deadline passed without Paxton's exit despite earlier speculation tied to potential Trump endorsements or SAVE America Act passage, stabilizing market odds. Recent April developments, including mixed polls showing Paxton leading or trailing narrowly, strong fundraising by Cornyn, and Paxton's ongoing AG actions like launching fraud investigations and lawsuits against cities, signal no imminent withdrawal. Absent late-breaking endorsements, scandals, or health issues, structural barriers to last-minute dropouts reinforce trader expectations.