National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45-50 knots with an asymmetric wind field and recent convective bursts, will experience little net change over the next day before entering increasingly hostile conditions. Persistent mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to trigger steady weakening, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low within 60 hours and dissipating thereafter. These environmental factors align with the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane strength (64+ knots), reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential despite intermittent convection. Traders appear to weigh the official intensity guidance heavily given the storm's remote location and rapid transition to unfavorable steering patterns.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane?
36% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
36% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 21, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45-50 knots with an asymmetric wind field and recent convective bursts, will experience little net change over the next day before entering increasingly hostile conditions. Persistent mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to trigger steady weakening, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low within 60 hours and dissipating thereafter. These environmental factors align with the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane strength (64+ knots), reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential despite intermittent convection. Traders appear to weigh the official intensity guidance heavily given the storm's remote location and rapid transition to unfavorable steering patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Обсяг
$313Дата завершення
Sep 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45-50 knots with an asymmetric wind field and recent convective bursts, will experience little net change over the next day before entering increasingly hostile conditions. Persistent mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to trigger steady weakening, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low within 60 hours and dissipating thereafter. These environmental factors align with the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane strength (64+ knots), reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential despite intermittent convection. Traders appear to weigh the official intensity guidance heavily given the storm's remote location and rapid transition to unfavorable steering patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Norbert reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Norbert reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Norbert does not reach hurricane strength by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Norbert is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Обсяг
$313Дата завершення
Sep 22, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 10, 2026, 11:23 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Norbert, currently at 45-50 knots with an asymmetric wind field and recent convective bursts, will experience little net change over the next day before entering increasingly hostile conditions. Persistent mid-level dry air and west-southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to trigger steady weakening, with the system degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low within 60 hours and dissipating thereafter. These environmental factors align with the 79% market-implied probability against hurricane strength (64+ knots), reflecting model consensus on limited intensification potential despite intermittent convection. Traders appear to weigh the official intensity guidance heavily given the storm's remote location and rapid transition to unfavorable steering patterns.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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