Choo Mi-ae secured the Democratic Party nomination for the June 3, 2026, Gyeonggi gubernatorial race and maintained a substantial lead in pre-election polling against People Power Party candidate Yang Hyang-ja. Exit polls and initial vote counts on election day projected her victory with approximately 55 percent support, reflecting the ruling party’s strength in South Korea’s most populous province and her profile as a six-term lawmaker and former justice minister. This positioning produced the current trader consensus on Polymarket. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of an official recount, court challenge to certification, or unexpected disqualification, though the reported margin makes such outcomes unlikely.

May 12 2026

Market sharply downgrades Yang Hyang-ja's chances in Gyeonggi gubernatorial race

Yang Hyang-ja plunges to 1%49%

On May 12, 2026, Yang Hyang-ja's market price plummeted from 50% to near 0%, indicating a loss of viability or withdrawal from the race, significantly impacting the market dynamics and consolidating support for Choo Mi-ae.

Apr 11 2026

Choo Mi-ae's support surges amid political stabilization in South Korea

Choo Mi-ae surges to 92%20%

Following the political turmoil, Choo Mi-ae's market price sharply increased to 92%, reflecting growing confidence in her candidacy as the political environment stabilized and voters consolidated support around her.

Dec 3 2025

Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol imposes martial law decree

Choo Mi-ae plunges to 32%17%

Yoon's unprecedented martial law decree in December 2024 led to political turmoil and public backlash, impacting the political landscape in South Korea and influencing voter sentiment in the Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial race. This event coincides with a significant drop in Choo Mi-ae's market price from 49% to 32% in early December 2025.

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