Rapid progress in advanced reasoning models has pushed top performers like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol to 87–89% on the updated FrontierMath Tier 4 (v2) benchmark of 338 research-level problems, released in June 2026 after error corrections. This trajectory, driven by expanded test-time compute, agentic workflows, and iterative releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind, underpins the 81% market-implied odds of reaching 90% before 2027. Traders weigh these gains against error margins, benchmark versioning, and the risk of slower scaling, while monitoring upcoming model launches and capability demonstrations as key swing factors for crossing the threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật80% khả năng
$118,543 KL.
$118,543 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
80% khả năng
$118,543 KL.
$118,543 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress in advanced reasoning models has pushed top performers like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol to 87–89% on the updated FrontierMath Tier 4 (v2) benchmark of 338 research-level problems, released in June 2026 after error corrections. This trajectory, driven by expanded test-time compute, agentic workflows, and iterative releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind, underpins the 81% market-implied odds of reaching 90% before 2027. Traders weigh these gains against error margins, benchmark versioning, and the risk of slower scaling, while monitoring upcoming model launches and capability demonstrations as key swing factors for crossing the threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$118,543Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress in advanced reasoning models has pushed top performers like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol to 87–89% on the updated FrontierMath Tier 4 (v2) benchmark of 338 research-level problems, released in June 2026 after error corrections. This trajectory, driven by expanded test-time compute, agentic workflows, and iterative releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind, underpins the 81% market-implied odds of reaching 90% before 2027. Traders weigh these gains against error margins, benchmark versioning, and the risk of slower scaling, while monitoring upcoming model launches and capability demonstrations as key swing factors for crossing the threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$118,543Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid progress in advanced reasoning models has pushed top performers like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol to 87–89% on the updated FrontierMath Tier 4 (v2) benchmark of 338 research-level problems, released in June 2026 after error corrections. This trajectory, driven by expanded test-time compute, agentic workflows, and iterative releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind, underpins the 81% market-implied odds of reaching 90% before 2027. Traders weigh these gains against error margins, benchmark versioning, and the risk of slower scaling, while monitoring upcoming model launches and capability demonstrations as key swing factors for crossing the threshold.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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