Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-23 House Election Winner
CA-23 House Election Winner
$60,553 KL.
$60,553 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$60,553 KL.
$60,553 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$28,392 KL.
93%
Democratic Party
$32,161 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$60,553Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$60,553Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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