Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the 24th congressional district. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reinforced by recent redistricting and voter registration patterns across Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties, underpins trader consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Carbajal's prior margins and fundraising edge. Low-probability shifts could stem from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking legal or personal developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually elevated Republican mobilization in this coastal district ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$50,756 KL.
$50,756 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
2%
$50,756 KL.
$50,756 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,466 KL.
98%
Republican Party
$18,289 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the 24th congressional district. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reinforced by recent redistricting and voter registration patterns across Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties, underpins trader consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Carbajal's prior margins and fundraising edge. Low-probability shifts could stem from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking legal or personal developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually elevated Republican mobilization in this coastal district ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$50,756Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the 24th congressional district. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reinforced by recent redistricting and voter registration patterns across Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties, underpins trader consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Carbajal's prior margins and fundraising edge. Low-probability shifts could stem from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking legal or personal developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually elevated Republican mobilization in this coastal district ahead of the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$50,756Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Bob Smith in the November general election for the 24th congressional district. The seat's consistent Democratic performance, reinforced by recent redistricting and voter registration patterns across Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties, underpins trader consensus. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting Carbajal's prior margins and fundraising edge. Low-probability shifts could stem from a sharp national partisan swing, late-breaking legal or personal developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually elevated Republican mobilization in this coastal district ahead of the November 3 ballot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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