Democrat Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding lead in the California 26th district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Julia Brownley, sits in a district with a solid Democratic tilt reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting and a roughly 15-point voter registration advantage. Irwin, a state assemblymember, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with over 41% of the vote and faces Republican pastor Sam Gallucci, who advanced with about 21%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting double-digit margins consistent with the district’s partisan voter index. Late developments such as turnout shifts or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the gap, though the structural and candidate fundamentals have kept probabilities stable near election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-26 House Election Winner
CA-26 House Election Winner
$32,175 KL.
$32,175 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$32,175 KL.
$32,175 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,426 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$15,749 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding lead in the California 26th district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Julia Brownley, sits in a district with a solid Democratic tilt reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting and a roughly 15-point voter registration advantage. Irwin, a state assemblymember, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with over 41% of the vote and faces Republican pastor Sam Gallucci, who advanced with about 21%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting double-digit margins consistent with the district’s partisan voter index. Late developments such as turnout shifts or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the gap, though the structural and candidate fundamentals have kept probabilities stable near election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,175Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democrat Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding lead in the California 26th district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Julia Brownley, sits in a district with a solid Democratic tilt reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting and a roughly 15-point voter registration advantage. Irwin, a state assemblymember, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with over 41% of the vote and faces Republican pastor Sam Gallucci, who advanced with about 21%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting double-digit margins consistent with the district’s partisan voter index. Late developments such as turnout shifts or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the gap, though the structural and candidate fundamentals have kept probabilities stable near election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,175Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Democrat Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding lead in the California 26th district race, reflected in the 94.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. The open seat, vacated by longtime incumbent Julia Brownley, sits in a district with a solid Democratic tilt reinforced by recent mid-decade redistricting and a roughly 15-point voter registration advantage. Irwin, a state assemblymember, topped the June 2026 top-two primary with over 41% of the vote and faces Republican pastor Sam Gallucci, who advanced with about 21%. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, projecting double-digit margins consistent with the district’s partisan voter index. Late developments such as turnout shifts or unexpected national headwinds could narrow the gap, though the structural and candidate fundamentals have kept probabilities stable near election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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