Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNV-04 House Election Winner
NV-04 House Election Winner
$10,002 KL.
$10,002 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Steven Horsford (D)
91%
Cody Whipple (R)
5%
$10,002 KL.
$10,002 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Steven Horsford (D)
$4,697 KL.
91%
Cody Whipple (R)
$5,305 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,002Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$10,002Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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