**Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington's 5th congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election.** The August 4 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy to the general, confirming a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican won by roughly 21 points. The district carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and favored Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024, providing a structural Republican edge in a midterm environment. Recent polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of Conroy by 6 points among likely voters, consistent with the seat's partisan lean and the incumbent's established profile. No major developments, candidate withdrawals, or national shifts have altered this positioning since the primary. The market's 79.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals—incumbency advantage, district demographics, and limited Democratic momentum—while the 19.5% Democratic share accounts for the possibility of a broader midterm shift or stronger Conroy performance in the Spokane-area electorate. Resolution occurs after certification of the November general election results.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWA-05 House Election Winner
WA-05 House Election Winner
$35,283 KL.
$35,283 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
79%
Democratic Party
20%
$35,283 KL.
$35,283 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,312 KL.
79%
Democratic Party
$20,971 KL.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington's 5th congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election.** The August 4 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy to the general, confirming a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican won by roughly 21 points. The district carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and favored Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024, providing a structural Republican edge in a midterm environment.
Recent polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of Conroy by 6 points among likely voters, consistent with the seat's partisan lean and the incumbent's established profile. No major developments, candidate withdrawals, or national shifts have altered this positioning since the primary. The market's 79.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals—incumbency advantage, district demographics, and limited Democratic momentum—while the 19.5% Democratic share accounts for the possibility of a broader midterm shift or stronger Conroy performance in the Spokane-area electorate. Resolution occurs after certification of the November general election results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$35,283Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington's 5th congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election.** The August 4 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy to the general, confirming a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican won by roughly 21 points. The district carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and favored Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024, providing a structural Republican edge in a midterm environment.
Recent polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of Conroy by 6 points among likely voters, consistent with the seat's partisan lean and the incumbent's established profile. No major developments, candidate withdrawals, or national shifts have altered this positioning since the primary. The market's 79.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals—incumbency advantage, district demographics, and limited Democratic momentum—while the 19.5% Democratic share accounts for the possibility of a broader midterm shift or stronger Conroy performance in the Spokane-area electorate. Resolution occurs after certification of the November general election results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$35,283Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican incumbent Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington's 5th congressional district for the November 3, 2026, general election.** The August 4 top-two primary advanced Baumgartner and Democrat Carmela Conroy to the general, confirming a rematch of their 2024 contest where the Republican won by roughly 21 points. The district carries an R+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and favored Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024, providing a structural Republican edge in a midterm environment. Recent polling from May 2026 showed Baumgartner ahead of Conroy by 6 points among likely voters, consistent with the seat's partisan lean and the incumbent's established profile. No major developments, candidate withdrawals, or national shifts have altered this positioning since the primary. The market's 79.5% Republican probability reflects these fundamentals—incumbency advantage, district demographics, and limited Democratic momentum—while the 19.5% Democratic share accounts for the possibility of a broader midterm shift or stronger Conroy performance in the Spokane-area electorate. Resolution occurs after certification of the November general election results.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp