Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in the heavily Democratic MD-04 district, with its D+39 partisan lean and 85% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability. Ivey's dominant 88% general election win and 85% primary victory last cycle, bolstered by $426,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025, underscore his strength amid a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others label it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting weak Republican opposition from repeat nominee George McDermott. While a national Republican wave, primary upset weakening the Democratic nominee, or unforeseen scandal could shift odds, historical margins and district demographics present significant barriers to a GOP upset.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$17,762 KL.
$17,762 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
$17,762 KL.
$17,762 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,553 KL.
93%
Republican Party
$14,210 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in the heavily Democratic MD-04 district, with its D+39 partisan lean and 85% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability. Ivey's dominant 88% general election win and 85% primary victory last cycle, bolstered by $426,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025, underscore his strength amid a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others label it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting weak Republican opposition from repeat nominee George McDermott. While a national Republican wave, primary upset weakening the Democratic nominee, or unforeseen scandal could shift odds, historical margins and district demographics present significant barriers to a GOP upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$17,762Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in the heavily Democratic MD-04 district, with its D+39 partisan lean and 85% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability. Ivey's dominant 88% general election win and 85% primary victory last cycle, bolstered by $426,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025, underscore his strength amid a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others label it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting weak Republican opposition from repeat nominee George McDermott. While a national Republican wave, primary upset weakening the Democratic nominee, or unforeseen scandal could shift odds, historical margins and district demographics present significant barriers to a GOP upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$17,762Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Glenn Ivey's commanding position in the heavily Democratic MD-04 district, with its D+39 partisan lean and 85% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at over 90% implied probability. Ivey's dominant 88% general election win and 85% primary victory last cycle, bolstered by $426,000 cash-on-hand through late 2025, underscore his strength amid a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest. Ratings from Cook Political Report and others label it Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting weak Republican opposition from repeat nominee George McDermott. While a national Republican wave, primary upset weakening the Democratic nominee, or unforeseen scandal could shift odds, historical margins and district demographics present significant barriers to a GOP upset.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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