Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Partisan Voter Index exceeding D+39 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with over 88 percent in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23 against several challengers while the Republican side features a single nominee. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as solidly or safely Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory. This positioning stems from the district's composition in Prince George's County suburbs, high Democratic turnout patterns, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unexpected primary result or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though historical precedent in comparable districts shows minimal deviation from the established partisan baseline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$27,153 KL.
$27,153 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$27,153 KL.
$27,153 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,107 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$19,046 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Partisan Voter Index exceeding D+39 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with over 88 percent in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23 against several challengers while the Republican side features a single nominee. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as solidly or safely Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory. This positioning stems from the district's composition in Prince George's County suburbs, high Democratic turnout patterns, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unexpected primary result or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though historical precedent in comparable districts shows minimal deviation from the established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$27,153Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Partisan Voter Index exceeding D+39 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with over 88 percent in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23 against several challengers while the Republican side features a single nominee. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as solidly or safely Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory. This positioning stems from the district's composition in Prince George's County suburbs, high Democratic turnout patterns, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unexpected primary result or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though historical precedent in comparable districts shows minimal deviation from the established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$27,153Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, with a Partisan Voter Index exceeding D+39 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022 and re-elected with over 88 percent in 2024, faces a Democratic primary on June 23 against several challengers while the Republican side features a single nominee. Forecasters across outlets rate the general election as solidly or safely Democratic, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory. This positioning stems from the district's composition in Prince George's County suburbs, high Democratic turnout patterns, and limited Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow, such as an unexpected primary result or late legal developments affecting ballot access, though historical precedent in comparable districts shows minimal deviation from the established partisan baseline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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