Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$49,897 KL.
$49,897 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$49,897 KL.
$49,897 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,535 KL.
95%
Republican Party
$24,362 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$49,897Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$49,897Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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