Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent of the vote against Democrat Michael Masuda, who received 24 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. The seat’s established Republican lean, reflected in its PVI and consistent past results, underpins trader consensus that McClintock will prevail. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as redistricting changes under Proposition 50 primarily affected other California districts. A major national shift against Republicans, an unforeseen scandal, or substantially higher Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-05 House Election Winner
CA-05 House Election Winner
$10,211 KL.
$10,211 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$10,211 KL.
$10,211 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,722 KL.
94%
Democratic Party
$3,488 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent of the vote against Democrat Michael Masuda, who received 24 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. The seat’s established Republican lean, reflected in its PVI and consistent past results, underpins trader consensus that McClintock will prevail. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as redistricting changes under Proposition 50 primarily affected other California districts. A major national shift against Republicans, an unforeseen scandal, or substantially higher Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,211Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent of the vote against Democrat Michael Masuda, who received 24 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. The seat’s established Republican lean, reflected in its PVI and consistent past results, underpins trader consensus that McClintock will prevail. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as redistricting changes under Proposition 50 primarily affected other California districts. A major national shift against Republicans, an unforeseen scandal, or substantially higher Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$10,211Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 61 percent of the vote against Democrat Michael Masuda, who received 24 percent, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in a district rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and other forecasters. The seat’s established Republican lean, reflected in its PVI and consistent past results, underpins trader consensus that McClintock will prevail. Limited recent developments have altered this positioning, as redistricting changes under Proposition 50 primarily affected other California districts. A major national shift against Republicans, an unforeseen scandal, or substantially higher Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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