Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks a third term in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Ryan’s strong 2024 reelection margin, combined with limited Republican recruitment and modest fundraising for challenger Jacqueline Auringer, has produced consensus ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. The June 23 primaries concluded without competitive challenges on either side, and available polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 90 percent as the November 3 general election approaches, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Ryan’s incumbency resources, and the absence of late-cycle developments that would typically shift probabilities in a more competitive race.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$34,705 KL.
$34,705 KL.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
10%
$34,705 KL.
$34,705 KL.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,682 KL.
90%
Republican Party
$2,023 KL.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks a third term in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Ryan’s strong 2024 reelection margin, combined with limited Republican recruitment and modest fundraising for challenger Jacqueline Auringer, has produced consensus ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. The June 23 primaries concluded without competitive challenges on either side, and available polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 90 percent as the November 3 general election approaches, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Ryan’s incumbency resources, and the absence of late-cycle developments that would typically shift probabilities in a more competitive race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$34,705Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks a third term in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Ryan’s strong 2024 reelection margin, combined with limited Republican recruitment and modest fundraising for challenger Jacqueline Auringer, has produced consensus ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. The June 23 primaries concluded without competitive challenges on either side, and available polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 90 percent as the November 3 general election approaches, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Ryan’s incumbency resources, and the absence of late-cycle developments that would typically shift probabilities in a more competitive race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$34,705Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan seeks a third term in New York’s 18th congressional district, which covers the mid-Hudson Valley including Orange County and parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties. Ryan’s strong 2024 reelection margin, combined with limited Republican recruitment and modest fundraising for challenger Jacqueline Auringer, has produced consensus ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from major forecasters. The June 23 primaries concluded without competitive challenges on either side, and available polling shows Ryan ahead by double digits. Traders price the Democratic nominee near 90 percent as the November 3 general election approaches, reflecting the district’s partisan baseline, Ryan’s incumbency resources, and the absence of late-cycle developments that would typically shift probabilities in a more competitive race.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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