Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's D+ lean, an eight-point Democratic voter registration edge, and his narrow 2024 flip of the Orange County-based district. Tran advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while Chuong Vo secured the second spot. Major forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Tran's fundraising lead, incumbency, and the district's suburban demographics with sizable Asian American and Latino populations. A Republican upset would require major shifts in turnout patterns or late-breaking events such as scandals or national political realignments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$32,536 KL.
$32,536 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
$32,536 KL.
$32,536 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,078 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$13,457 KL.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's D+ lean, an eight-point Democratic voter registration edge, and his narrow 2024 flip of the Orange County-based district. Tran advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while Chuong Vo secured the second spot. Major forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Tran's fundraising lead, incumbency, and the district's suburban demographics with sizable Asian American and Latino populations. A Republican upset would require major shifts in turnout patterns or late-breaking events such as scandals or national political realignments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$32,536Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's D+ lean, an eight-point Democratic voter registration edge, and his narrow 2024 flip of the Orange County-based district. Tran advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while Chuong Vo secured the second spot. Major forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Tran's fundraising lead, incumbency, and the district's suburban demographics with sizable Asian American and Latino populations. A Republican upset would require major shifts in turnout patterns or late-breaking events such as scandals or national political realignments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$32,536Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran holds a commanding position in California's 45th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, driven by the seat's D+ lean, an eight-point Democratic voter registration edge, and his narrow 2024 flip of the Orange County-based district. Tran advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a fragmented Republican field, while Chuong Vo secured the second spot. Major forecasters rate the race Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Tran's fundraising lead, incumbency, and the district's suburban demographics with sizable Asian American and Latino populations. A Republican upset would require major shifts in turnout patterns or late-breaking events such as scandals or national political realignments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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