Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% monthly to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by a 21.2% gasoline spike amid geopolitical tensions—while core CPI edged to 2.6% annually. Resilient labor data, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs versus 65,000 expected and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, reinforces the March FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot projecting just one 25 basis points cut later in 2026. A 12.5% odds on a modest cut reflects potential softening ahead, while hike probabilities stay below 5% absent further shocks; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May data for shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 81%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 13%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 3.9%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 2.5%
$3,681,825 KL.
$3,681,825 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
2%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
13%
Không thay đổi
81%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
1%
Không thay đổi 81%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 13%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 3.9%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản 2.5%
$3,681,825 KL.
$3,681,825 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$165,705 KL.
2%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$114,782 KL.
13%
Không thay đổi
$182,962 KL.
81%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$3,022,073 KL.
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$196,303 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% monthly to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by a 21.2% gasoline spike amid geopolitical tensions—while core CPI edged to 2.6% annually. Resilient labor data, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs versus 65,000 expected and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, reinforces the March FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot projecting just one 25 basis points cut later in 2026. A 12.5% odds on a modest cut reflects potential softening ahead, while hike probabilities stay below 5% absent further shocks; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May data for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,681,825Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% monthly to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by a 21.2% gasoline spike amid geopolitical tensions—while core CPI edged to 2.6% annually. Resilient labor data, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs versus 65,000 expected and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, reinforces the March FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot projecting just one 25 basis points cut later in 2026. A 12.5% odds on a modest cut reflects potential softening ahead, while hike probabilities stay below 5% absent further shocks; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May data for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$3,681,825Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 0.9% monthly to 3.3% year-over-year—fueled by a 21.2% gasoline spike amid geopolitical tensions—while core CPI edged to 2.6% annually. Resilient labor data, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs versus 65,000 expected and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, reinforces the March FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot projecting just one 25 basis points cut later in 2026. A 12.5% odds on a modest cut reflects potential softening ahead, while hike probabilities stay below 5% absent further shocks; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May data for shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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