Recent model runs and observational data indicate a shift to northeasterly flow over Madrid on September 9, 2026, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover or isolated showers, which caps afternoon highs near 26–28 °C after several days of 32–35 °C readings. Official guidance from agencies such as AEMET and ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS align on this moderation, with limited model spread around peak temperatures. Historical September climatology places average highs near 28 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors values at or below that baseline. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities, where 27 °C leads at 42.5 % and adjacent outcomes (26 °C and 28 °C) together exceed 90 % combined, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow forecast envelope ahead of final verification.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
27°C 43%
28°C 26%
26°C 23%
25°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 9, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
23%
27°C
43%
28°C
26%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
27°C 43%
28°C 26%
26°C 23%
25°C 5%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 9, 2026
24°C or below
$670 KL.
1%
25°C
$267 KL.
5%
26°C
$500 KL.
23%
27°C
$1,700 KL.
43%
28°C
$486 KL.
26%
29°C
$363 KL.
5%
30°C
$585 KL.
1%
31°C
$64 KL.
1%
32°C
$350 KL.
<1%
33°C
$166 KL.
<1%
34°C or higher
$384 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and observational data indicate a shift to northeasterly flow over Madrid on September 9, 2026, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover or isolated showers, which caps afternoon highs near 26–28 °C after several days of 32–35 °C readings. Official guidance from agencies such as AEMET and ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS align on this moderation, with limited model spread around peak temperatures. Historical September climatology places average highs near 28 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors values at or below that baseline. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities, where 27 °C leads at 42.5 % and adjacent outcomes (26 °C and 28 °C) together exceed 90 % combined, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow forecast envelope ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$5,534Ngày kết thúc
Sep 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs and observational data indicate a shift to northeasterly flow over Madrid on September 9, 2026, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover or isolated showers, which caps afternoon highs near 26–28 °C after several days of 32–35 °C readings. Official guidance from agencies such as AEMET and ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS align on this moderation, with limited model spread around peak temperatures. Historical September climatology places average highs near 28 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors values at or below that baseline. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities, where 27 °C leads at 42.5 % and adjacent outcomes (26 °C and 28 °C) together exceed 90 % combined, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow forecast envelope ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$5,534Ngày kết thúc
Sep 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs and observational data indicate a shift to northeasterly flow over Madrid on September 9, 2026, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover or isolated showers, which caps afternoon highs near 26–28 °C after several days of 32–35 °C readings. Official guidance from agencies such as AEMET and ensemble outputs from ECMWF and GFS align on this moderation, with limited model spread around peak temperatures. Historical September climatology places average highs near 28 °C, but the current synoptic pattern favors values at or below that baseline. These conditions underpin the market-implied probabilities, where 27 °C leads at 42.5 % and adjacent outcomes (26 °C and 28 °C) together exceed 90 % combined, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow forecast envelope ahead of final verification.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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