Mexico City's high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters moderates temperatures even during the peak of the rainy season, when afternoon convection and cloud cover typically cap daytime maxima near the long-term August average of 23–24°C. Current forecast guidance from models referenced in sources such as AccuWeather and WeatherSpark points to a similar range for August 7, with modest warming possible if insolation increases before storms develop. Trader consensus reflected in the 43.5% and 32.5% implied probabilities for 24°C and 25°C therefore tracks closely with these climatological baselines and the latest model runs, while lower-probability outcomes above 26°C would require unusually clear, stable conditions unlikely under prevailing monsoon flow. Updated observations from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional later today will determine final resolution.