Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, upheld by the state Supreme Court after a special legislative session, targets four Democratic-held districts held by incumbents including Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, shifting the baseline toward a 24-4 Republican advantage in the 28-seat delegation. Primaries concluded in August with general election matchups now set ahead of the November 3 vote. National generic ballot polling favoring Democrats and targeted investments in suburban and South Florida races sustain trader uncertainty, producing a spread with 6 seats as the plurality outcome at 23.5 percent while 4 and 7 remain competitive. Outcomes above 10 seats or below 4 draw lower probabilities given structural barriers and limited competitive openings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4 19.2%
6 16%
5 14%
7 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 2, 2026
<4
1%
4
14%
5
14%
6
16%
7
14%
8
5%
9
5%
10
11%
11
11%
12+
12%
4 19.2%
6 16%
5 14%
7 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 2, 2026
<4
$184 KL.
1%
4
$1,341 KL.
14%
5
$647 KL.
14%
6
$425 KL.
16%
7
$414 KL.
14%
8
$597 KL.
5%
9
$391 KL.
5%
10
$590 KL.
11%
11
$750 KL.
11%
12+
$481 KL.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, upheld by the state Supreme Court after a special legislative session, targets four Democratic-held districts held by incumbents including Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, shifting the baseline toward a 24-4 Republican advantage in the 28-seat delegation. Primaries concluded in August with general election matchups now set ahead of the November 3 vote. National generic ballot polling favoring Democrats and targeted investments in suburban and South Florida races sustain trader uncertainty, producing a spread with 6 seats as the plurality outcome at 23.5 percent while 4 and 7 remain competitive. Outcomes above 10 seats or below 4 draw lower probabilities given structural barriers and limited competitive openings.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Khối lượng
$5,821Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, upheld by the state Supreme Court after a special legislative session, targets four Democratic-held districts held by incumbents including Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, shifting the baseline toward a 24-4 Republican advantage in the 28-seat delegation. Primaries concluded in August with general election matchups now set ahead of the November 3 vote. National generic ballot polling favoring Democrats and targeted investments in suburban and South Florida races sustain trader uncertainty, producing a spread with 6 seats as the plurality outcome at 23.5 percent while 4 and 7 remain competitive. Outcomes above 10 seats or below 4 draw lower probabilities given structural barriers and limited competitive openings.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$5,821Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida, upheld by the state Supreme Court after a special legislative session, targets four Democratic-held districts held by incumbents including Kathy Castor, Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, shifting the baseline toward a 24-4 Republican advantage in the 28-seat delegation. Primaries concluded in August with general election matchups now set ahead of the November 3 vote. National generic ballot polling favoring Democrats and targeted investments in suburban and South Florida races sustain trader uncertainty, producing a spread with 6 seats as the plurality outcome at 23.5 percent while 4 and 7 remain competitive. Outcomes above 10 seats or below 4 draw lower probabilities given structural barriers and limited competitive openings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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