Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control around April 1 by sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and blocking civilian appointments amid reported power struggles. No verified military defections, elite rebellions, or mass uprisings have materialized despite earlier protests and external pressures, as IRGC loyalty and crackdowns have suppressed dissent. Ongoing war diplomacy and lack of fracturing signals in the past 30 days justify the 87% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, though escalation or leadership vacuums could shift dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$399,508 KL.
$399,508 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Có
$399,508 KL.
$399,508 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control around April 1 by sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and blocking civilian appointments amid reported power struggles. No verified military defections, elite rebellions, or mass uprisings have materialized despite earlier protests and external pressures, as IRGC loyalty and crackdowns have suppressed dissent. Ongoing war diplomacy and lack of fracturing signals in the past 30 days justify the 87% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, though escalation or leadership vacuums could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$399,508Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control around April 1 by sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and blocking civilian appointments amid reported power struggles. No verified military defections, elite rebellions, or mass uprisings have materialized despite earlier protests and external pressures, as IRGC loyalty and crackdowns have suppressed dissent. Ongoing war diplomacy and lack of fracturing signals in the past 30 days justify the 87% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, though escalation or leadership vacuums could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$399,514Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's resilience following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating de facto control around April 1 by sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian and blocking civilian appointments amid reported power struggles. No verified military defections, elite rebellions, or mass uprisings have materialized despite earlier protests and external pressures, as IRGC loyalty and crackdowns have suppressed dissent. Ongoing war diplomacy and lack of fracturing signals in the past 30 days justify the 87% implied probability against a coup attempt by June 30, though escalation or leadership vacuums could shift dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp