**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 16°C low for Ankara on August 21 at 98% implied probability because multiple forecast models and recent observations indicate the overnight minimum will settle at that level under clear, calm conditions.** Ankara’s continental climate produces strong diurnal temperature swings in late summer, with daytime highs near 31–33°C giving way to efficient radiative cooling after sunset. Official guidance and ensemble outputs show temperatures falling steadily through the early morning hours, bottoming near 16–17°C around dawn before rebounding, consistent with climatological norms for the date. The near-certainty reflects the absence of significant cloud cover, precipitation, or advective warming that could alter the trajectory. Realistic challenges include a late wind shift introducing milder air or station-specific measurement differences that push the recorded low to 15°C or 17°C, though current data make these low-probability outcomes.