Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate clear skies, light northerly or northeasterly winds, and low humidity over Madrid on September 3, supporting overnight radiational cooling after daytime highs near 36–39°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range under high pressure, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values. Slight model differences in wind speed, dew points, and urban heat island effects create uncertainty between 19°C and 26°C outcomes, while the low probability for 18°C or below reflects limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate cooling. Historical September baselines average lower lows, but the current warm spell elevates expectations. AEMET updates and new model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the precise minimum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
26°C 85%
22°C 84%
23°C 84%
25°C 84%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
29%
19°C
44%
20°C
44%
21°C
44%
22°C
84%
23°C
84%
24°C
2%
25°C
84%
26°C
85%
27°C
7%
28°C or higher
42%
26°C 85%
22°C 84%
23°C 84%
25°C 84%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 3, 2026
18°C or below
$34 KL.
29%
19°C
$0 KL.
44%
20°C
$0 KL.
44%
21°C
$0 KL.
44%
22°C
$5 KL.
84%
23°C
$5 KL.
84%
24°C
$5 KL.
2%
25°C
$5 KL.
84%
26°C
$5 KL.
85%
27°C
$5 KL.
7%
28°C or higher
$5 KL.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate clear skies, light northerly or northeasterly winds, and low humidity over Madrid on September 3, supporting overnight radiational cooling after daytime highs near 36–39°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range under high pressure, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values. Slight model differences in wind speed, dew points, and urban heat island effects create uncertainty between 19°C and 26°C outcomes, while the low probability for 18°C or below reflects limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate cooling. Historical September baselines average lower lows, but the current warm spell elevates expectations. AEMET updates and new model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$69Ngày kết thúc
Sep 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate clear skies, light northerly or northeasterly winds, and low humidity over Madrid on September 3, supporting overnight radiational cooling after daytime highs near 36–39°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range under high pressure, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values. Slight model differences in wind speed, dew points, and urban heat island effects create uncertainty between 19°C and 26°C outcomes, while the low probability for 18°C or below reflects limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate cooling. Historical September baselines average lower lows, but the current warm spell elevates expectations. AEMET updates and new model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$69Ngày kết thúc
Sep 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS and other models indicate clear skies, light northerly or northeasterly winds, and low humidity over Madrid on September 3, supporting overnight radiational cooling after daytime highs near 36–39°C. This setup typically produces minimum temperatures in the 19–22°C range under high pressure, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around those values. Slight model differences in wind speed, dew points, and urban heat island effects create uncertainty between 19°C and 26°C outcomes, while the low probability for 18°C or below reflects limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate cooling. Historical September baselines average lower lows, but the current warm spell elevates expectations. AEMET updates and new model runs ahead of the date will likely refine the precise minimum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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