Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.