**Sylvie Tanguay of the Parti Québécois holds the highest implied probability at 57 percent in the Saint-François riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election.** Provincial polling trends favoring the PQ, including recent by-election gains, have boosted her position as the frontrunner against incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec. Hébert, seeking a third term, faces headwinds from broader CAQ declines after governing since 2018. Liberal candidate Jacqueline Belleau and Québec solidaire’s Mia Fréchette trail with lower probabilities, reflecting limited projected support in the riding. Candidate nominations closed in mid-September, locking in the field that includes a Conservative contender. Local issues such as health care and immigration feature in the campaign, but province-wide momentum appears to be the dominant driver keeping Tanguay ahead while leaving room for shifts before election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSylvie Tanguay 53%
Geneviève Hébert 26%
Jacqueline Belleau 16%
Mia Fréchette 4.6%
Sylvie Tanguay
53%
Geneviève Hébert
26%
Jacqueline Belleau
16%
Mia Fréchette
5%
Sylvie Tanguay 53%
Geneviève Hébert 26%
Jacqueline Belleau 16%
Mia Fréchette 4.6%
Sylvie Tanguay
53%
Geneviève Hébert
26%
Jacqueline Belleau
16%
Mia Fréchette
5%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Nguồn giải quyết
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Người giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Nguồn giải quyết
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Người giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...**Sylvie Tanguay of the Parti Québécois holds the highest implied probability at 57 percent in the Saint-François riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election.** Provincial polling trends favoring the PQ, including recent by-election gains, have boosted her position as the frontrunner against incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec. Hébert, seeking a third term, faces headwinds from broader CAQ declines after governing since 2018. Liberal candidate Jacqueline Belleau and Québec solidaire’s Mia Fréchette trail with lower probabilities, reflecting limited projected support in the riding. Candidate nominations closed in mid-September, locking in the field that includes a Conservative contender. Local issues such as health care and immigration feature in the campaign, but province-wide momentum appears to be the dominant driver keeping Tanguay ahead while leaving room for shifts before election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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