Market-implied odds strongly favor 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, consistent with the Bank of England's central projection of 1.1% alongside IMF and OECD forecasts near 1.0%. Recent quarterly data show subdued momentum, with Q2 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to July advancing at a similar pace, supported by services and AI-related productivity but offset by the energy price shock from Middle East tensions and tighter financial conditions. The July Monetary Policy Report highlighted widening slack and weak household spending as key drags, keeping the annual outcome likely within the 1-2% band absent major fiscal shifts or further geopolitical escalation. Traders are monitoring the October budget and upcoming inflation and labor releases for any material revisions to the growth path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1-2% 88.6%
0-1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 KL.
$83,507 KL.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
1%
0-1%
10%
1-2%
89%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 88.6%
0-1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 KL.
$83,507 KL.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
$11,971 KL.
1%
0-1%
$20,172 KL.
10%
1-2%
$30,118 KL.
89%
2-3%
$4,731 KL.
1%
3-4%
$3,663 KL.
1%
4-5%
$8,810 KL.
<1%
5%+
$4,041 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds strongly favor 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, consistent with the Bank of England's central projection of 1.1% alongside IMF and OECD forecasts near 1.0%. Recent quarterly data show subdued momentum, with Q2 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to July advancing at a similar pace, supported by services and AI-related productivity but offset by the energy price shock from Middle East tensions and tighter financial conditions. The July Monetary Policy Report highlighted widening slack and weak household spending as key drags, keeping the annual outcome likely within the 1-2% band absent major fiscal shifts or further geopolitical escalation. Traders are monitoring the October budget and upcoming inflation and labor releases for any material revisions to the growth path.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Khối lượng
$83,507Ngày kết thúc
Feb 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds strongly favor 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, consistent with the Bank of England's central projection of 1.1% alongside IMF and OECD forecasts near 1.0%. Recent quarterly data show subdued momentum, with Q2 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to July advancing at a similar pace, supported by services and AI-related productivity but offset by the energy price shock from Middle East tensions and tighter financial conditions. The July Monetary Policy Report highlighted widening slack and weak household spending as key drags, keeping the annual outcome likely within the 1-2% band absent major fiscal shifts or further geopolitical escalation. Traders are monitoring the October budget and upcoming inflation and labor releases for any material revisions to the growth path.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$83,507Ngày kết thúc
Feb 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds strongly favor 1-2% UK GDP growth for 2026, consistent with the Bank of England's central projection of 1.1% alongside IMF and OECD forecasts near 1.0%. Recent quarterly data show subdued momentum, with Q2 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and the three months to July advancing at a similar pace, supported by services and AI-related productivity but offset by the energy price shock from Middle East tensions and tighter financial conditions. The July Monetary Policy Report highlighted widening slack and weak household spending as key drags, keeping the annual outcome likely within the 1-2% band absent major fiscal shifts or further geopolitical escalation. Traders are monitoring the October budget and upcoming inflation and labor releases for any material revisions to the growth path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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