Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 2026 FOMC projections showing a median of 2.4% alongside solid labor market data, including March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. This positioning stems from resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation pressures evident in the March CPI release on April 10, offsetting Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% annualized growth. Private forecasts from Goldman Sachs (2.5–2.8%) and Philadelphia Fed survey (2.5%) bolster the above-2.5% lead, though lower bins like 1.5–2.0% at 11.7% capture risks from potential policy tightening. Key catalysts ahead: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate around April 30 and late-April FOMC meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 56%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 KL.
$26,701 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
56%
>2.5% 56%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 KL.
$26,701 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,752 KL.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 KL.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 KL.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 KL.
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 KL.
10%
>2.5%
$3,820 KL.
56%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 2026 FOMC projections showing a median of 2.4% alongside solid labor market data, including March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. This positioning stems from resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation pressures evident in the March CPI release on April 10, offsetting Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% annualized growth. Private forecasts from Goldman Sachs (2.5–2.8%) and Philadelphia Fed survey (2.5%) bolster the above-2.5% lead, though lower bins like 1.5–2.0% at 11.7% capture risks from potential policy tightening. Key catalysts ahead: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate around April 30 and late-April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,701Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 2026 FOMC projections showing a median of 2.4% alongside solid labor market data, including March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. This positioning stems from resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation pressures evident in the March CPI release on April 10, offsetting Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% annualized growth. Private forecasts from Goldman Sachs (2.5–2.8%) and Philadelphia Fed survey (2.5%) bolster the above-2.5% lead, though lower bins like 1.5–2.0% at 11.7% capture risks from potential policy tightening. Key catalysts ahead: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate around April 30 and late-April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$26,701Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 56% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism from the Federal Reserve's March 2026 FOMC projections showing a median of 2.4% alongside solid labor market data, including March nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. This positioning stems from resilient consumer spending and moderating inflation pressures evident in the March CPI release on April 10, offsetting Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% annualized growth. Private forecasts from Goldman Sachs (2.5–2.8%) and Philadelphia Fed survey (2.5%) bolster the above-2.5% lead, though lower bins like 1.5–2.0% at 11.7% capture risks from potential policy tightening. Key catalysts ahead: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate around April 30 and late-April FOMC meeting.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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