Recent weaker-than-expected Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tightened the contest between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% annual bands in trader pricing. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed SPF, CBO, and private economists now cluster around 2.0–2.2% for the full year, reflecting downward revisions amid softening consumer spending and investment data. Offsetting support comes from robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient corporate earnings, while tariff effects and a cooling labor market introduce downside risks. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3% continues to constrain monetary easing expectations, leaving outcomes highly sensitive to Q3 GDP prints, employment reports, and any fiscal policy shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 33.2%
2.0–2.5% 32%
>2.5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 8.9%
$58,052 KL.
$58,052 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
7%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
33%
2.0–2.5%
32%
>2.5%
19%
1.5–2.0% 33.2%
2.0–2.5% 32%
>2.5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 8.9%
$58,052 KL.
$58,052 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,439 KL.
7%
0.5–1.0%
$17,161 KL.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$3,814 KL.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$6,622 KL.
33%
2.0–2.5%
$7,085 KL.
32%
>2.5%
$15,931 KL.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weaker-than-expected Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tightened the contest between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% annual bands in trader pricing. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed SPF, CBO, and private economists now cluster around 2.0–2.2% for the full year, reflecting downward revisions amid softening consumer spending and investment data. Offsetting support comes from robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient corporate earnings, while tariff effects and a cooling labor market introduce downside risks. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3% continues to constrain monetary easing expectations, leaving outcomes highly sensitive to Q3 GDP prints, employment reports, and any fiscal policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$58,052Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weaker-than-expected Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tightened the contest between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% annual bands in trader pricing. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed SPF, CBO, and private economists now cluster around 2.0–2.2% for the full year, reflecting downward revisions amid softening consumer spending and investment data. Offsetting support comes from robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient corporate earnings, while tariff effects and a cooling labor market introduce downside risks. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3% continues to constrain monetary easing expectations, leaving outcomes highly sensitive to Q3 GDP prints, employment reports, and any fiscal policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$58,052Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weaker-than-expected Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized has tightened the contest between the 2.0–2.5% and 1.5–2.0% annual bands in trader pricing. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed SPF, CBO, and private economists now cluster around 2.0–2.2% for the full year, reflecting downward revisions amid softening consumer spending and investment data. Offsetting support comes from robust AI-related capital expenditures and resilient corporate earnings, while tariff effects and a cooling labor market introduce downside risks. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3% continues to constrain monetary easing expectations, leaving outcomes highly sensitive to Q3 GDP prints, employment reports, and any fiscal policy shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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