Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have elevated energy prices, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, pressuring 2026 global GDP growth forecasts through higher inflation and tighter financial conditions. Institutional projections now cluster around 2.5–3.0%, including the OECD’s recent upward revision to 2.9% citing resilience from AI investment, oil inventories, and policy support, alongside the IMF’s 3.0% estimate and lower figures from the World Bank and UN. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether these offsets will sustain growth near or above 3.1% or push outcomes to 2.9% or below amid risks of prolonged hostilities and debt pressures. The October IMF update and winter energy demand represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật3.1% 29.6%
≤2.9% 23.9%
3.7%+ 17.9%
3.2% 16.4%
$43,635 KL.
$43,635 KL.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
24%
3.0%
10%
3.1%
30%
3.2%
16%
3.3%
5%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
2%
3.6%
3%
3.7%+
18%
3.1% 29.6%
≤2.9% 23.9%
3.7%+ 17.9%
3.2% 16.4%
$43,635 KL.
$43,635 KL.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
$9,404 KL.
24%
3.0%
$5,432 KL.
10%
3.1%
$9,044 KL.
30%
3.2%
$5,494 KL.
16%
3.3%
$4,059 KL.
5%
3.4%
$4,568 KL.
4%
3.5%
$3,612 KL.
2%
3.6%
$939 KL.
3%
3.7%+
$1,084 KL.
18%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have elevated energy prices, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, pressuring 2026 global GDP growth forecasts through higher inflation and tighter financial conditions. Institutional projections now cluster around 2.5–3.0%, including the OECD’s recent upward revision to 2.9% citing resilience from AI investment, oil inventories, and policy support, alongside the IMF’s 3.0% estimate and lower figures from the World Bank and UN. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether these offsets will sustain growth near or above 3.1% or push outcomes to 2.9% or below amid risks of prolonged hostilities and debt pressures. The October IMF update and winter energy demand represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Thị trường mở: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Khối lượng
$43,635Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2f5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have elevated energy prices, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, pressuring 2026 global GDP growth forecasts through higher inflation and tighter financial conditions. Institutional projections now cluster around 2.5–3.0%, including the OECD’s recent upward revision to 2.9% citing resilience from AI investment, oil inventories, and policy support, alongside the IMF’s 3.0% estimate and lower figures from the World Bank and UN. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether these offsets will sustain growth near or above 3.1% or push outcomes to 2.9% or below amid risks of prolonged hostilities and debt pressures. The October IMF update and winter energy demand represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Khối lượng
$43,635Ngày kết thúc
May 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2f5e3684c...Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have elevated energy prices, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, pressuring 2026 global GDP growth forecasts through higher inflation and tighter financial conditions. Institutional projections now cluster around 2.5–3.0%, including the OECD’s recent upward revision to 2.9% citing resilience from AI investment, oil inventories, and policy support, alongside the IMF’s 3.0% estimate and lower figures from the World Bank and UN. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds highlights uncertainty over whether these offsets will sustain growth near or above 3.1% or push outcomes to 2.9% or below amid risks of prolonged hostilities and debt pressures. The October IMF update and winter energy demand represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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