Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty following a 1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2 after Q1's 0.6% contraction, with full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.0-1.7% amid moderating domestic demand and persistent USMCA review risks. Traders price even probabilities across buckets as near-term indicators—Banxico's 6.5% policy rate, 3.4% headline inflation, and 2.9% unemployment—show mixed signals, while nearshoring FDI and U.S. export linkages offer upside offsets against potential Q3 contraction risks from weaker investment and labor trends. Key swing factors include August-September inflation prints, formal employment data, and any Fed or trade policy shifts that could alter the quarterly trajectory before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1.5-2.0% 40%
2.0-2.5% 24%
2.5-3.0% 19%
1.0-1.5% 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5-1.0%
4%
1.0-1.5%
17%
1.5-2.0%
40%
2.0-2.5%
24%
2.5-3.0%
19%
3.0-3.5%
3%
3.5%+
4%
1.5-2.0% 40%
2.0-2.5% 24%
2.5-3.0% 19%
1.0-1.5% 17%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$86 KL.
3%
0.5-1.0%
$85 KL.
4%
1.0-1.5%
$85 KL.
17%
1.5-2.0%
$85 KL.
40%
2.0-2.5%
$85 KL.
24%
2.5-3.0%
$147 KL.
19%
3.0-3.5%
$85 KL.
3%
3.5%+
$85 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty following a 1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2 after Q1's 0.6% contraction, with full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.0-1.7% amid moderating domestic demand and persistent USMCA review risks. Traders price even probabilities across buckets as near-term indicators—Banxico's 6.5% policy rate, 3.4% headline inflation, and 2.9% unemployment—show mixed signals, while nearshoring FDI and U.S. export linkages offer upside offsets against potential Q3 contraction risks from weaker investment and labor trends. Key swing factors include August-September inflation prints, formal employment data, and any Fed or trade policy shifts that could alter the quarterly trajectory before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$743Ngày kết thúc
Oct 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty following a 1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2 after Q1's 0.6% contraction, with full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.0-1.7% amid moderating domestic demand and persistent USMCA review risks. Traders price even probabilities across buckets as near-term indicators—Banxico's 6.5% policy rate, 3.4% headline inflation, and 2.9% unemployment—show mixed signals, while nearshoring FDI and U.S. export linkages offer upside offsets against potential Q3 contraction risks from weaker investment and labor trends. Key swing factors include August-September inflation prints, formal employment data, and any Fed or trade policy shifts that could alter the quarterly trajectory before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$743Ngày kết thúc
Oct 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty following a 1.5% QoQ rebound in Q2 after Q1's 0.6% contraction, with full-year 2026 forecasts clustered around 1.0-1.7% amid moderating domestic demand and persistent USMCA review risks. Traders price even probabilities across buckets as near-term indicators—Banxico's 6.5% policy rate, 3.4% headline inflation, and 2.9% unemployment—show mixed signals, while nearshoring FDI and U.S. export linkages offer upside offsets against potential Q3 contraction risks from weaker investment and labor trends. Key swing factors include August-September inflation prints, formal employment data, and any Fed or trade policy shifts that could alter the quarterly trajectory before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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