Trader consensus centers on 50-74 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting the month's typical climatological decline after peak spring-summer activity and the current stable upper-level ridge suppressing organized severe convection. National Weather Service data show only modest early-month output, with 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports from September 4-14 amid limited tropical cyclone influence. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability often driven by landfalling systems or mid-latitude troughs that are absent in latest Storm Prediction Center outlooks through late September. The secondary 25-49 bracket at 40.5% accounts for the risk of continued quiet conditions under building high pressure, while probabilities below 10% for 75+ or under 25 align with the low likelihood of sudden outbreaks given model consensus. Remaining days offer few triggers for escalation before month-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
50 - 74 58%
25 - 49 39%
75 - 124 38%
Under 25 3.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
3%
25 - 49
39%
50 - 74
58%
75 - 124
38%
125 or more
3%
50 - 74 58%
25 - 49 39%
75 - 124 38%
Under 25 3.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$50 KL.
3%
25 - 49
$0 KL.
39%
50 - 74
$0 KL.
58%
75 - 124
$89 KL.
38%
125 or more
$50 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus centers on 50-74 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting the month's typical climatological decline after peak spring-summer activity and the current stable upper-level ridge suppressing organized severe convection. National Weather Service data show only modest early-month output, with 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports from September 4-14 amid limited tropical cyclone influence. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability often driven by landfalling systems or mid-latitude troughs that are absent in latest Storm Prediction Center outlooks through late September. The secondary 25-49 bracket at 40.5% accounts for the risk of continued quiet conditions under building high pressure, while probabilities below 10% for 75+ or under 25 align with the low likelihood of sudden outbreaks given model consensus. Remaining days offer few triggers for escalation before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Khối lượng
$189Ngày kết thúc
Oct 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus centers on 50-74 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting the month's typical climatological decline after peak spring-summer activity and the current stable upper-level ridge suppressing organized severe convection. National Weather Service data show only modest early-month output, with 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports from September 4-14 amid limited tropical cyclone influence. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability often driven by landfalling systems or mid-latitude troughs that are absent in latest Storm Prediction Center outlooks through late September. The secondary 25-49 bracket at 40.5% accounts for the risk of continued quiet conditions under building high pressure, while probabilities below 10% for 75+ or under 25 align with the low likelihood of sudden outbreaks given model consensus. Remaining days offer few triggers for escalation before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$189Ngày kết thúc
Oct 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus centers on 50-74 US tornadoes in September 2026 at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting the month's typical climatological decline after peak spring-summer activity and the current stable upper-level ridge suppressing organized severe convection. National Weather Service data show only modest early-month output, with 10 confirmed paths and 29 local storm reports from September 4-14 amid limited tropical cyclone influence. Historical September averages range from 66 to 74 tornadoes, with high year-to-year variability often driven by landfalling systems or mid-latitude troughs that are absent in latest Storm Prediction Center outlooks through late September. The secondary 25-49 bracket at 40.5% accounts for the risk of continued quiet conditions under building high pressure, while probabilities below 10% for 75+ or under 25 align with the low likelihood of sudden outbreaks given model consensus. Remaining days offer few triggers for escalation before month-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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