Republicans hold a slim House majority of 217-214 (including one independent caucusing with Democrats and four vacancies), anchoring trader consensus at 84% against losing control before the November 2026 midterms. Yesterday's New Jersey special election saw Democrat Analilia Mejia projected to win the seat vacated by a fellow Democrat, avoiding any flip. Despite a record wave of 35 House Republican retirements or pursuits of other offices announced since early 2026—rivaling historical exodus levels—no sudden resignations or special election losses have eroded the GOP edge. Remaining vacancies pose minimal risk per historical patterns of narrow-majority stability absent major scandals, with focus shifting to midterm battleground dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$11,226 KL.
$11,226 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
$11,226 KL.
$11,226 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans hold a slim House majority of 217-214 (including one independent caucusing with Democrats and four vacancies), anchoring trader consensus at 84% against losing control before the November 2026 midterms. Yesterday's New Jersey special election saw Democrat Analilia Mejia projected to win the seat vacated by a fellow Democrat, avoiding any flip. Despite a record wave of 35 House Republican retirements or pursuits of other offices announced since early 2026—rivaling historical exodus levels—no sudden resignations or special election losses have eroded the GOP edge. Remaining vacancies pose minimal risk per historical patterns of narrow-majority stability absent major scandals, with focus shifting to midterm battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,226Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans hold a slim House majority of 217-214 (including one independent caucusing with Democrats and four vacancies), anchoring trader consensus at 84% against losing control before the November 2026 midterms. Yesterday's New Jersey special election saw Democrat Analilia Mejia projected to win the seat vacated by a fellow Democrat, avoiding any flip. Despite a record wave of 35 House Republican retirements or pursuits of other offices announced since early 2026—rivaling historical exodus levels—no sudden resignations or special election losses have eroded the GOP edge. Remaining vacancies pose minimal risk per historical patterns of narrow-majority stability absent major scandals, with focus shifting to midterm battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$11,226Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republicans hold a slim House majority of 217-214 (including one independent caucusing with Democrats and four vacancies), anchoring trader consensus at 84% against losing control before the November 2026 midterms. Yesterday's New Jersey special election saw Democrat Analilia Mejia projected to win the seat vacated by a fellow Democrat, avoiding any flip. Despite a record wave of 35 House Republican retirements or pursuits of other offices announced since early 2026—rivaling historical exodus levels—no sudden resignations or special election losses have eroded the GOP edge. Remaining vacancies pose minimal risk per historical patterns of narrow-majority stability absent major scandals, with focus shifting to midterm battleground dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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