Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-213 seats amid several vacancies, a margin that has withstood multiple special elections held since the 2024 cycle without net loss of control. With the November 2026 midterms only months away, the limited slate of remaining special elections—mostly in safe districts—offers little realistic path for Democrats to secure the net gains required to flip the chamber before voters decide the full 435 seats. Traders assign 97.3% probability to Republicans retaining the majority through this window, reflecting the structural buffer, short timeline, and absence of widespread vacancies or resignations in competitive seats. Late developments such as clustered vacancies in Republican-held districts or unusually large swings in the final specials could still alter the balance, though such outcomes have few precedents in recent cycles.