Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling and the historical midterm penalty for the president's party represent the main drivers behind trader positioning. With Republicans defending a narrow majority from the 2024 cycle, forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains of 20–40 seats as voters assess the second Trump administration. Recent September updates to district ratings and national averages have reinforced expectations of losses in competitive suburban and Sun Belt districts, pushing implied probabilities highest for outcomes below 190 Republican seats. Key variables that could shift ranges include further movement in the generic ballot, candidate recruitment and retirements in battleground seats, and turnout differentials in early voting states.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 30%
195-199 16%
190-194 14%
200-204 12.4%
$311,593 KL.
$311,593 KL.
Jan 4, 2027
Below 190
30%
190-194
14%
195-199
16%
200-204
12%
205-209
12%
210-214
10%
215-219
7%
220-224
5%
225-229
2%
230+
2%
Below 190 30%
195-199 16%
190-194 14%
200-204 12.4%
$311,593 KL.
$311,593 KL.
Jan 4, 2027
Below 190
$46,562 KL.
30%
190-194
$15,881 KL.
14%
195-199
$34,619 KL.
16%
200-204
$26,766 KL.
12%
205-209
$41,761 KL.
12%
210-214
$16,547 KL.
10%
215-219
$12,155 KL.
7%
220-224
$60,118 KL.
5%
225-229
$25,094 KL.
2%
230+
$32,090 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling and the historical midterm penalty for the president's party represent the main drivers behind trader positioning. With Republicans defending a narrow majority from the 2024 cycle, forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains of 20–40 seats as voters assess the second Trump administration. Recent September updates to district ratings and national averages have reinforced expectations of losses in competitive suburban and Sun Belt districts, pushing implied probabilities highest for outcomes below 190 Republican seats. Key variables that could shift ranges include further movement in the generic ballot, candidate recruitment and retirements in battleground seats, and turnout differentials in early voting states.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$311,593Ngày kết thúc
Jan 5, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling and the historical midterm penalty for the president's party represent the main drivers behind trader positioning. With Republicans defending a narrow majority from the 2024 cycle, forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains of 20–40 seats as voters assess the second Trump administration. Recent September updates to district ratings and national averages have reinforced expectations of losses in competitive suburban and Sun Belt districts, pushing implied probabilities highest for outcomes below 190 Republican seats. Key variables that could shift ranges include further movement in the generic ballot, candidate recruitment and retirements in battleground seats, and turnout differentials in early voting states.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$311,593Ngày kết thúc
Jan 5, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2f5e3684c...Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polling and the historical midterm penalty for the president's party represent the main drivers behind trader positioning. With Republicans defending a narrow majority from the 2024 cycle, forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains of 20–40 seats as voters assess the second Trump administration. Recent September updates to district ratings and national averages have reinforced expectations of losses in competitive suburban and Sun Belt districts, pushing implied probabilities highest for outcomes below 190 Republican seats. Key variables that could shift ranges include further movement in the generic ballot, candidate recruitment and retirements in battleground seats, and turnout differentials in early voting states.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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