The 2026 Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Recent polling averages place the candidates within 1-3 points of each other, with individual surveys showing small leads alternating between Peltola and Sullivan. This equilibrium reflects Peltola's strong primary performance, her crossover appeal among independents and in certain rural districts, and Sullivan's incumbency advantages in a state that leans Republican overall. Minor candidates on the ballot add complexity to first-round vote shares and potential RCV redistributions. Trader positioning on narrow victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign shifts, though upcoming debates or additional surveys could widen perceived gaps.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAlaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Peltola 0-3% 26%
Sullivan 0-3% 21%
Peltola 3-6% 19%
Sullivan 6-9% 15%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
4%
Sullivan 9-12%
5%
Sullivan 6-9%
15%
Sullivan 3-6%
5%
Sullivan 0-3%
21%
Peltola 0-3%
26%
Peltola 3-6%
19%
Peltola 6-9%
7%
Peltola 9-12%
4%
Peltola 12+%
9%
Peltola 0-3% 26%
Sullivan 0-3% 21%
Peltola 3-6% 19%
Sullivan 6-9% 15%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
$269 KL.
4%
Sullivan 9-12%
$472 KL.
5%
Sullivan 6-9%
$85 KL.
15%
Sullivan 3-6%
$122 KL.
5%
Sullivan 0-3%
$86 KL.
21%
Peltola 0-3%
$878 KL.
26%
Peltola 3-6%
$223 KL.
19%
Peltola 6-9%
$71 KL.
7%
Peltola 9-12%
$74 KL.
4%
Peltola 12+%
$72 KL.
9%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Recent polling averages place the candidates within 1-3 points of each other, with individual surveys showing small leads alternating between Peltola and Sullivan. This equilibrium reflects Peltola's strong primary performance, her crossover appeal among independents and in certain rural districts, and Sullivan's incumbency advantages in a state that leans Republican overall. Minor candidates on the ballot add complexity to first-round vote shares and potential RCV redistributions. Trader positioning on narrow victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign shifts, though upcoming debates or additional surveys could widen perceived gaps.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,352Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Recent polling averages place the candidates within 1-3 points of each other, with individual surveys showing small leads alternating between Peltola and Sullivan. This equilibrium reflects Peltola's strong primary performance, her crossover appeal among independents and in certain rural districts, and Sullivan's incumbency advantages in a state that leans Republican overall. Minor candidates on the ballot add complexity to first-round vote shares and potential RCV redistributions. Trader positioning on narrow victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign shifts, though upcoming debates or additional surveys could widen perceived gaps.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,352Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47de9d...The 2026 Alaska Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election under ranked-choice voting. Recent polling averages place the candidates within 1-3 points of each other, with individual surveys showing small leads alternating between Peltola and Sullivan. This equilibrium reflects Peltola's strong primary performance, her crossover appeal among independents and in certain rural districts, and Sullivan's incumbency advantages in a state that leans Republican overall. Minor candidates on the ballot add complexity to first-round vote shares and potential RCV redistributions. Trader positioning on narrow victory margins aligns with this polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign shifts, though upcoming debates or additional surveys could widen perceived gaps.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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