Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership targets, and missile infrastructure since February 2026 have relied on air and naval power under operations like Epic Fury, without mobilizing ground forces for territorial occupation or regime-change invasion. Ceasefire agreements in April, subsequent Strait of Hormuz negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, and July diplomatic pauses reflect administration priorities on de-escalation and sanctions relief over sustained combat. Analysts note Iran's terrain, population size, and logistical barriers make large-scale ground operations highly costly, consistent with historical U.S. restraint in similar conflicts. Trader consensus for "No" at 79.5% therefore tracks the absence of invasion indicators and emphasis on diplomatic off-ramps through year-end 2026.