Recent US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have centered on air and naval power, missile targeting, and degradation of Iranian capabilities rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control. Ongoing tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping, intermittent strikes into July, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding have kept engagement at a level short of invasion, with US actions emphasizing precision operations and economic pressure. Diplomatic channels, including mediated technical talks on sanctions relief and navigation protocols, continue alongside military activity, reflecting trader assessments of logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for containment over occupation. These patterns sustain the 79.5% implied probability that no US offensive to seize Iranian territory occurs by December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Liệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Có
$54,782,196 KL.
$54,782,196 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$54,782,196 KL.
$54,782,196 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have centered on air and naval power, missile targeting, and degradation of Iranian capabilities rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control. Ongoing tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping, intermittent strikes into July, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding have kept engagement at a level short of invasion, with US actions emphasizing precision operations and economic pressure. Diplomatic channels, including mediated technical talks on sanctions relief and navigation protocols, continue alongside military activity, reflecting trader assessments of logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for containment over occupation. These patterns sustain the 79.5% implied probability that no US offensive to seize Iranian territory occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$54,782,196Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have centered on air and naval power, missile targeting, and degradation of Iranian capabilities rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control. Ongoing tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping, intermittent strikes into July, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding have kept engagement at a level short of invasion, with US actions emphasizing precision operations and economic pressure. Diplomatic channels, including mediated technical talks on sanctions relief and navigation protocols, continue alongside military activity, reflecting trader assessments of logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for containment over occupation. These patterns sustain the 79.5% implied probability that no US offensive to seize Iranian territory occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Khối lượng
$54,782,196Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US military operations against Iran, initiated with joint airstrikes on February 28, 2026, have centered on air and naval power, missile targeting, and degradation of Iranian capabilities rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control. Ongoing tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping, intermittent strikes into July, and a fragile June memorandum of understanding have kept engagement at a level short of invasion, with US actions emphasizing precision operations and economic pressure. Diplomatic channels, including mediated technical talks on sanctions relief and navigation protocols, continue alongside military activity, reflecting trader assessments of logistical barriers, high costs, and preference for containment over occupation. These patterns sustain the 79.5% implied probability that no US offensive to seize Iranian territory occurs by December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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